RTP Load Forecasting

The Load Forecasting function of RTP uses transmission and distribution information, energy schedules, weather, and past history to forecast loads on and interval-by-interval basis. The forecast is used, in part, to develop the Base RTP calculation.

Periodically, the Market Timer, (the RTO/ISO market operations system or other market entity, depending upon the market design) forecasts power system conditions for a specific period, say the next 24 hours, based on energy schedules and prices already submitted, ancillary services available, weather conditions, day of the week, scheduled outage information from transmission and distribution operations, and real-time information from transmission and distribution operations, etc.

The Load Forecasting function uses historical load forecasts databases and combines that information about the energy generation schedules, transmission and distribution system constraints and ancillary services bids to estimate the load for areas within the system studied. Various load forecasting packages approach the problem in different ways but all use these input and combine weather, time of the year, day of the week and other correlated variables to predict customer behavior for the specific settlement periods being forecasted.

Steps

#	Event	Name of Process/Activity	Description of Process/Activity	Information Producer	Information Receiver	Name of Info Exchanged	Additional Notes	IntelliGrid Architecture Environments
1.1	Market Timer initiates the forecast power system condition		Forecast power system conditions for the next “settlement” periods					Intra-Control Center
1.1.1			Load energy schedules from Energy Schedule Database.	Energy Schedule Database		Energy schedules	APIs needed between databases and application	Intra-Control Center
1.1.2			Load Ancillary services bids/offers from database	Ancillary Services Bids/Offers		Ancillary Services Bids	APIs needed between databases and application	Control Centers to ESPs
1.1.3			Load weather forecasts from Weather Service	Weather Service		Weather forecasts	Existing weather protocol and weather format must be used	Intra-Control Center
1.1.4			Load historical load data a from historical load database	Historic Load Database		Historical load data	APIs needed between databases and application	Intra-Control Center
1.1.5			Load transmission system information for outages and constraints	Transmission System Data		Transmission outage and constraint data	Inter utility communications must be supported	Intra-Control Center
1.1.6			Load distribution system information for outages and constraints	Distribution System Data		Distribution outage and constraint data	Inter utility communications must be supported	Intra-Control Center
1.2	Completion of Load Forecasting application		Post results of load forecast to load forecast database for other applications to access (RTP base rate calculator)	Load Forecaster	Forecast Loads	Load Forecast	APIs needed between databases and application	Control Centers to ESPs

Customer Services - RTP Load Forecasting Function

Contents

Narrative

Steps